Every Black Friday, advertisers pour millions into social, search, TV, email, and influencer campaigns, yet it’s hard to say with certainty which levers truly moved the needle. That uncertainty adds up.
So…how confident are you that last year’s sales paid off?
Understanding Where You Spent and Whether It’s Paying Off
According to Nielsen, 63% of media spend now goes to digital channels, yet only 38% of marketers measure ROI holistically. It’s not for a lack of effort, but an indication of how complex today’s media landscape has become. With so many platforms, signals, and siloed data sources, getting a unified view of performance is a real challenge.
The disconnect between perception and performance can lead to costly misallocations. That’s why holistic tools like Marketing Mix Modeling (MMM) have become essential for high-stakes moments like Black Friday.
Marketing Mix Models take your marketing and sales data and uncover how changes in spend relate to performance. Rather than relying on surface-level metrics, it identifies which channels show the strongest connection to incremental growth, and how they interact to shape purchase decisions.
You Spent $100K — What’s Your Return?
Here’s a simple way to visualize why this matters.
Let’s say you spent $100,000 across several channels for Black Friday:
- Paid Social: $30,000
- Paid Search: $20,000
- Email Marketing: $10,000
- TV Advertising: $40,000
After the weekend, you generated $400,000 in sales, but what actually drove those results? Marketers need deeper insight into performance. Did your heavy TV spend truly move the needle, or did more efficient channels like email or paid social have a stronger influence? Without the right measurement, you’re left with assumptions and biases.
Using advanced statistical modeling, MMM shows how each channel contributes to the overall performance, revealing patterns, relationships, and synergies that simple attribution tools can’t see.
Once your results are in, you’ll gain a complete perspective:
- Which channels showed the strongest connection to sales outcomes
- How channels amplified one another across the mix
- Where spend is outpacing its actual impact, or where spend is punching above its weight
MMM turns hindsight into foresight
The real value of MMM is using that knowledge to make every future campaign more efficient. Each year, Black Friday gives marketers a rich dataset that, when analyzed correctly, becomes a competitive advantage.
When you discover that your email campaign delivered a 200% ROI while TV ads drove only 80%, that insight becomes your roadmap. It shows you where to scale, where to trim, and where to experiment. You can confidently reallocate budget toward what’s proven to convert and fine-tune the rest for better synergy across channels.
For example, Arima clients have found that:
- A lighter TV spend supported by stronger search and email delivers more cost-effective reach.
- Paid social performs best when paired with influencer campaigns during peak hours.
- OOH placements near stores drive in-person conversions only when paired with timely digital offers.
It’s not about cutting what underperforms, but rather, optimizing the total mix so every dollar works harder. MMM highlights the interplay between channels, showing where spend compounds impact and where it simply duplicates effort. Over time, these insights will help you design smarter, more predictive campaigns instead of reactive ones.
Treat MMM as an ongoing feedback loop, not a one-time report. Each cycle of measurement, adjustment, and optimization strengthens your next campaign. Over time, your Black Friday strategy becomes less about guesswork and more about precision, turning each campaign into a stepping stone for greater efficiency and profitability.
The Takeaway
Amid the rush of sales and promotions, it’s easy to rely on surface-level metrics. But measuring what actually drives sales, across channels and across time, is what separates tactical success from strategic growth.
If you want this year’s Black Friday to be your most efficient yet, start by asking not just how much you sold, but why. MMM can help you find the answer.
