How Google Meridian Measures Up for Marketing Mix Modeling
There are many reasons to move away from digital attribution and embrace Marketing Mix Modeling (MMM). If industry giants like Google and Meta are offering MMM solutions, it might seem like a clear signal that MMM is the way forward. However, the real question is not whether to adopt MMM but rather which approach to take in building, using, and maintaining your MMMs. Additionally, true value comes from integrating MMM seamlessly into workflows for both internal and external stakeholders.
Four Approaches to MMM
Organizations can generally choose from four broad approaches:
- The Manual Approach — Build it yourself by assembling a team of data scientists to create and manage your MMM and other data projects.
- The Provider Approach — Work with a third-party provider, sending them your data and waiting months to receive a presentation of results.
- The Open-Source Approach — Utilize free solutions like Meta’s Robyn, Google’s Meridian, or Uber’s Orbit, customizing and operating them in-house.
- The Platform Approach — Use an easy-to-operate platform that allows for in-house management without requiring deep technical expertise.
Choosing the Right MMM: A Boat Analogy
Think of MMM like going sailing. Before asking, “What’s the best boat?” first determine how much time you want to spend building versus sailing.
- The Manual Approach: You design and build the boat from scratch, hiring a skilled team to construct, test, and sail it.
- The Provider Approach: You charter a fully staffed boat and rely on an external crew.
- The Open-Source Approach: You download free boat plans, gather a team, customize it, and sail it yourself.
- The Platform Approach: You buy a boat and captain it yourself.
Core Principles of a Good MMM
A robust MMM must adhere to four principles:
- Neutrality & Transparency — All media should be evaluated equally and customizable to suit specific needs.
- Realistic Scope — The model should reflect the real-world market, competitive dynamics, and all relevant media channels.
- Usability & Timeliness — Reports and insights should be delivered quickly, enabling timely decision-making.
- Flexibility — The MMM should accommodate both simple and complex modeling requirements.
The Problem with Google Meridian MMM
Google Meridian is designed to integrate seamlessly with Google’s advertising ecosystem. However, this creates several limitations:
- Biased Data Interpretation: It treats all Google media products as a single channel with opaque machine learning optimizations, limiting transparency.
- Lack of Customization: Advertisers have little control over how channels are defined and evaluated.
- Limited Scope: It lacks broad data inclusion, ignoring non-media factors, competitive influences, and long-term analysis.
- Restricted Accessibility: Operating MMM should be intuitive and widely accessible, but requiring Python or R proficiency creates a significant barrier to adoption.
The Importance of Neutrality in MMM
At the heart of MMM is the concept of adstock, which accounts for how ad impressions accumulate and decay over time. Different media types (e.g., Paid Search vs. YouTube) should have distinct adstock variables. A truly neutral MMM should:
- Allow advertisers to define adstock parameters rather than relying on a media seller’s preset definitions.
- Evaluate all media types independently, free from biases toward a particular platform.
- Incorporate non-media factors (e.g., seasonality, economic shifts, and competitor actions) for a holistic view.
Conclusion & Key Takeaways
Google and Meta’s adoption of MMM validates its importance, but choosing the right approach is crucial.
Key Takeaways:
- MMM should be neutral and transparent, not tied to a media provider’s interests.
- Long-term data inclusion is critical, capturing seasonality, non-media influences, and competitive shifts.
- Ease of use matters — requiring coding skills creates barriers, preventing broad adoption.
- Choosing the right MMM approach depends on your needs — whether you build, buy, or use open-source solutions, ensure it serves your business goals.
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